The Great Global Warming Swindle

What's happening in the wider BMW scene? Gossip and news about forthcoming models. Plus off-topic chat.
JontyP
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Post by JontyP »

This is a really interesting and balanced debate on here. Much more so than a debate about the various merits of Zeds verses others :) :?: .

However, just to pick up on one thing Benelvin said "Yes, higher CO2 levels lag historically lag behind higher temperatures. That does not mean you can eliminate the possibility that artificially increasing the levels of CO2 could cause temperatures to rise".

This is not a personal jibe, but surely if something "lags behind" then it cannot possibly be a cause. An increase in temperature cannot possibly happen before the phenomenon which is supposed to have caused it, can it?

Anyhow........... carry on.

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Post by smartypants »

OK - Even IF this GW phenomenon actually existed or indeed was caused by humans. Until the USA and China do anything about their emissions - the piddly amount that we contribute in England will not make a dent.

Its just all taxing making intiatives
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Post by benelvin »

JontyP wrote:
However, just to pick up on one thing Benelvin said "Yes, higher CO2 levels lag historically lag behind higher temperatures. That does not mean you can eliminate the possibility that artificially increasing the levels of CO2 could cause temperatures to rise".

This is not a personal jibe, but surely if something "lags behind" then it cannot possibly be a cause. An increase in temperature cannot possibly happen before the phenomenon which is supposed to have caused it, can it?

Jonty
Hey I don't mind personal jibes either :P

You've slightly misunderstood what I was trying to say (and I didn't make it too clear tbh!) Historically, we've seen CO2 levels rise several hundred years behind temperature - so from that we can deduce that rises in temp drive rises in CO2.

What you cannot extrapolate from that fact is that CO2 rises that are caused for OTHER reasons (Man made, periods of intense volcanic activity etc), do not affect temperature, which is what the programme tried to imply.

I would also point out that the "man made global warming" brigade have never (to my knowledge) denied the fact that the primary driver of climate change is solar activity (also implied by the programme). What they did not draw our attention too, is that the climate models are ALREADY based on solar activity as their major factor, but the current rises are 30% higher than those models predict.

Also, to point out that maybe you shouldn't take anything that they said at face value - they quoted the fact that CO2 emissions from volcanic activity are at the same level as man made CO2 emissions.

That didn't seem right to me so I looked it up - there's only one study I could find that calculated the global CO2 impact of volanic activity (Gerlach, T.M., 1992, Present-day CO2 emissions from volcanoes: Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 72, No. 23, June 4, 1991, pp. 249, and 254-255), and according the levels calculated in that, Volcanic CO2 is 1% of the level of Man Made CO2. So just where did that assertion come from?
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Post by JontyP »

That's a fair point very well put. That's part of the problem as you have mentioned before, as with all of this data, it is basically statistical and that can easily be skewed by anyone with a bias either way. This is a very informative thread, I must say.

I'm not trying to suggest we are having no effect but I do honestly wonder how much of this effect can be attributed to mankind.

And as someone has already said the whole "saving the planet" arguement is really "saving the planet for Mankind". The planet will survive in some form or another.

Cheers
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Post by smartypants »

Well said Jonty!
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Post by ///M_aniac »

smartypants wrote:Well said Jonty!
Ditto.

What about the scratches, Jonty?
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Post by skelters »

All we keep hearing is that in 500 years time or so the oceans will have engulfed half of southern Engerluund and the low countries in Europe. The oceans will rise by 6ft or something and we'd all be living in a warmer climate. The Ice caps will have melted etc etc.

If anyone ever meets these people that spout this rubbish could they ask them what exactly will the weather be like in 4 weeks time. I would want it down to the nearest mm of rainfall with exact temperatures.

Surely if they can predict the global climate in 100, 200 or more years then they can answer that question?
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Post by Robin »

For those of you not keen to pay more carbon tax, here are six little snippets of information you could email to your MP's. At the same time asking them to reply to you giving the reasons why they are so sure that human activities are the main cause of global warming ?
You could also ask them to watch this:- The Great Global Warming Swindle Part 1 of 8

1) Medieval temperatures were higher than present, such that vinyards flourished in the North of England. There were of course no cars or planes then. Greenhouse gases due to man’s activities were infinitesimal at that time.

2) During the period 1645–1715, right in the middle of the Little Ice Age, solar activity as seen in sunspots was extremely low, with some years having no sunspots at all. This period of low sunspot activity is known as the Maunder Minimum. The precise link between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures has not been established, but the coincidence of the Maunder Minimum with the deepest trough of the Little Ice Age is suggestive of such a connection

3) The current period of global warming started 150 years ago, 50 years before cars and planes were invented. Global temperature actually dropped between 1940 and 1975 at a time when CO2 levels continued to rise. However during that period levels of solar eruptions fell. Graphs of solar activity correlate better with global temperatures than graphs of levels of CO2.
4) The troposphere should be warming if greenhouse gases are trapping the sun’s heat. It isn’t.

5) Long term records going back 600 million of years show rises in CO2 levels lag global temperature rises by 800 years thus showing rising CO2 levels are an effect of warming not a major cause. Reason being it takes 800 years to warm the oceans. Warmer oceans emit more CO2.

6) CO2 emissions from human activity are only a small proportion compared to emissions from natural sources of CO2 & 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapour.
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Post by c_w »

Somehow I think these simple facts will be quickly swept under the carpet.

Who knows, maybe the government does know all this and the taxes and target measures to reduce co2 they want to introduce now will suddenly be justified when in 50 years time they'll tell us how co2 level and temperatures have started to fall (by nature and coincidence)
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Post by pingu »

Never let the facts get in the way of an opportunity to raise taxes.
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Post by Freezed »

Being of a simplistic disposition, my two penneth on this debate would be:-

Man and his toys together with the animal kingdom breathe in oxygen and breathe out carbon dioxide.

Plants, trees and most things green take in carbon dioide and give out oxygen.

Over recent years the oxygen levels of the planet have dropped slightly and the carbon dioxide levels have increased slightly.

During the same period the planet has experienced the greatest period of tropical rain forest destruction ever.

So as Smartypants says..............plant more trees and/or restrict the population growth............simple!
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Post by smartypants »

Global WARMING

Dont you just love it? :D

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(I remember it snowing for a week in mid march about 10 years ago too)

God we must pay more taxes Tony - the Planet is in real danger!!
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Post by c_w »

I think if we all leave our engines running overnight then we might prevent the snow next week? :dunce:
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Post by Robin »

So has anyone emailed their MP's yet then ?
Can't complain if you don't lobby the people who make the policies.
So far I've emailed Milliband, my MP and Cameron.
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komis
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Post by komis »

I admit, as with probably most people, I was pretty much convinced that all our industrialisation must have been causing havoc with the environment. Actually I was born and bred to think that way, being a late 70s child and all and I even felt guilty my 2.8 barely met EuroII regulations for emissions.

After this documentary, examining all the links from this site which fully adopt government policy without any sort of criticism and reading a bit about UK profits from African debt, I have now learned:

a) CO2 is 0.05% of all greenhouse gasses and that its levels have risen to 0.051%, something that cannot possibly cause such huge current or predicted changes;
b) CO2 scares create jobs for "academics" and "journalists", just the same way the other big scare of the century (terrorism) has created a multi-trillion worldwide industry;
c) Governments have a lot more to gain by pretending to care about the environment (taxes, continuation of 3rd world debt etc) when they really cannot do anything to prevent climate change;
d) The worlds Great Powers have used the UN again as a dildo with which to screw the world over, as they always have (see Iraq, Balkans, Sudan, Nicaragua etc). My ex's dad worked for the UN for years until he got fed up with all the corruption and resigned, in his words: "An organisation created by the world's great powers to legitimise their interests by buying out the consciences of lesser powers' delegates" (remember the majority of funding for the UN comes from the USA).

And that's just the basics. Thanks for opening my eyes on this matter.. I felt something fishy was going on here the moment the UK government decided to "lead by example" in this "cause".

And about academics being money-craving whores: it's God's honest truth, and I should know, I am an academic and I see this every day. It's unbelievable the amount of academics I know who will stop at nothing to get funded, and that's just in computer science.

At least I don't have any regrets about my 2.8 any more, hell, the next car will be an ///M and the Carbon C*nts can go stuff themselves.
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Post by Robin »

Excellent post Komis :)
I too work with academics. Supposed to be concerend with the truth, when most are only concerned with their careers.
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Post by komis »

Did I mention I'm removing my catalysts as well?

:twisted:
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Post by Robin »

komis wrote:Did I mention I'm removing my catalysts as well?
:twisted:
As perhaps you already know, it takes work to get the exhaust gases thru a cat so you'll increase your your MPG. Ironically that will help reduce your greenhouse emissions :)

Here's a reply I've just recieved from an email I sent to minister for the Environment David Miliband at DEFRA about the Global Warming Swindle programme. My view is DEFRA give no explanation in their email for the six points I make in my summary of the programme. They admit that CO2 has NOT been the driver of past climate changes, so how can they be so absolutely positive it is now ? Especially bearing in mind the warm period of medieval times and the cold period of the little ice age occurred without any changes in CO2 levels.
Also current trend of rising temps started 50 years before planes and cars appeared and dropped from 1940 to 1975 when CO2 levels were increasing. DEFRA personel appear somehow to have the mysterious ability to interpret data as correlating regardless of the fact that it doesn't correlate !
Government institutions pick & choose bits of information to suit the way they wish to see things rather than the way things might actually be. Just as they did when they wanted to find a reason to invade Iraq:-

"CCU 6th Floor
Nobel House
17 Smith Square
London
SW1A 3JR
Email: ccu.correspondence@defra.gsi.gov.uk
Website: www.defra.gov.uk

Dear Sir
‘THE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING SWINDLE’
Thank you for your email of 13 march to David Miliband regarding ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’. I have been asked to reply.
The programme was unbalanced and did not accurately represent the scientific consensus on the role of human activities in causing the current global warming. The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) leaves us in no doubt that human activities are responsible and that we need to act urgently to avoid dangerous climate change.
The IPCC is the world's most authoritative voice on climate change and the UK fully supports its work in rigorously assessing all scientific and technical aspects of climate change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, like its earlier reports, draws on the breadth of peer-reviewed research and has been prepared on an objective, open and transparent basis by thousands of scientists, worldwide.
There is evidence that temperature changes have preceded CO2 changes through glacial-interglacial cycles in the distant past. However, this just suggests that CO2 was not the initial driver of the glacial cycles. The evidence suggests that CO2 levels rose as a result of warming, possibly as the surface of the ocean warmed. As CO2 has a warming effect on the climate, it would then act as a feedback, stimulating additional warming. Now human emissions are causing the rise in CO2 levels, and therefore, the resulting warming of the climate.
It is also true that the trend in CO2 concentrations over the last century does not exactly match the trend in temperature. But we do not expect it to. This is for two key reasons. Firstly, there is a time lag between warming and changes in CO2, caused by the inertia in the climate system. Secondly, greenhouse gases are not the only determinant of temperature. Aerosols, which are also emitted from human activities, are also important and can be shown to explain much of the cooling seen in the middle of the 20th century.
Climate models represent the lag in the response of the climate, and the influence of many external factors. These show that the trend in temperatures does match what we would expect. Based on these analyses and others, the recent report of the IPCC concluded that most the warming over the past half century has been caused by the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations.
Human emissions are relatively small compared to natural emissions, particularly from ecosystems and the oceans. However, these natural emissions are in balance: the amount emitted is then reabsorbed. Human emissions tip the balance and lead to an accumulation of gases in the atmosphere. The human source can be shown through, for example, examining the chemical make-up and distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere.
It is clear that changes in solar radiation are a significant driver of the climate changes seen in the distant past. However, there is strong evidence that changes in solar radiation could not have caused the rapid warming observed over the past half century. The warming effects of changes in solar output since pre-industrial are less than around one tenth that of human emissions of greenhouse gases.
Despite recent claims, there is no scientifically robust evidence suggesting that cosmic ray variations have, or could even, play a significant role in recent warming. Variations in cosmic rays over the past few decades can not explain the long-term global warming trend.
As you mention, water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas, contributing 66% to 85% to the overall effect when you include clouds, 36% - 66% for vapour alone. It is however, not considered as a "forcing" because the amount of H2O in the air varies basically as a function of temperature. If you artificially increase the level of H2O in the air, it rains out immediately (in terms of climate response times), similarly, due to the abundance of sea surface, if you somehow removed water from the air it would quickly be replaced through evaporation.
CO2 put into the air by burning fossil fuels, on the other hand, has an atmospheric lifetime of centuries before natural sinks will significantly absorb any excess from the air. This is plenty of time to have substantial and even longer lasting effects of the climate system.
I hope that this letter addresses your concerns.
Yours sincerely


Andrew Morrissy
Customer Contact Unit "
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pingu
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Post by pingu »

It's on right now on More+1 (Sky 189).
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Post by whiteminks »

dwz8 wrote:here is the final proof that global warming is happening... :wink:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :D
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Post by dwz8 »

here is the final proof that global warming is happening... :wink:
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Post by dwz8 »

whiteminks wrote:
dwz8 wrote:here is the final proof that global warming is happening... :wink:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :D
we should probably add jodphurs for 2010? :wink: :D
Cheers, Dieter

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Post by whiteminks »

dwz8 wrote:
whiteminks wrote:
dwz8 wrote:here is the final proof that global warming is happening... :wink:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :D
we should probably add jodphurs for 2010? :wink: :D
Gazza and I have already got ours ready Dieter

http://www.zroadster.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=100

See page 3 :wink: When do we get to see you in yours?

Cheers P
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Post by ///M_aniac »

Goodness! Please don't be posting those pics of Gazza again.

Terrifying. :wink:
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Post by Gazza »

Oye!! C.

They are Artistic Poses :lol: :lol: :lol:

And Off topic...............Sorry


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Post by ///M_aniac »

Artisitc. Oh, right. Ok. I see. I think. :wink:
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Post by dwz8 »

whiteminks wrote:
dwz8 wrote:
whiteminks wrote:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :D
we should probably add jodphurs for 2010? :wink: :D
Gazza and I have already got ours ready Dieter

http://www.zroadster.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=100

See page 3 :wink: When do we get to see you in yours?

Cheers P
I wouldn't have anything to wear to make me look as nice as you and Gazza... :wink:
Cheers, Dieter

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komis
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Post by komis »

Sorry to be a spoilsport, dear jodhpur lovers, but back to the subject, I read some news about "the oceans absorbing most of the CO2 we emit", hence the low increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.
This apparently affects shellfish and their ability to develop their shells, as adding CO2 decreases the PH in the oceans
(more here)

Unfortunately the researchers do not explain how the process of natural evolution may change the nature of shellfish and the chemical constitution of their shells. Also they fail to clarify whether they will taste any better or whether we will still need to add lemon to oysters.
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Post by smartypants »

Wow yet another "The World is Changing" shock-horror story


Better put the tax up to stop that World a-revolving!
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